Pharma Cliff-Hanger?

We have been wondering about the doomsday scenarios presented relating to the major pharmas and the patent cliff. Projections on revenue a couple of years back were pretty bleak for some of the majors, starting in 2011. The first chart was based on projections compiled by Bernstein analyst Tim Anderson in mid-2011. 

Below we compiled a chart of some of the leading pharmas with real revenue figures for the past four years. Numbers come from Google finance. Other than Pfizer, AZ and BMS, it’s not so horrific. Sanofi is actually slightly on the uptick in spite of the loss of Plavix, and Roche is holding its own.

 

In addition, if you look at stock prices over the past year, some of these companies are doing pretty well. Look at Lilly, up 39% in a year. And Pfizer, with post-Lipitor revenue dropping to the point that the company is just a notch above Novartis in sales, is up 29%.

Now, I’ve been joking lately that it’s time for the rats to take advantage of their opportunities as the Cretaceous-Paleogene extinction event in pharma occurs, but who knows, this may be just the beginning of the Jurassic.

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