Pharma Cliff-Hanger?

We have been wondering about the doomsday scenarios presented relating to the major pharmas and the patent cliff. Projections on revenue a couple of years back were pretty bleak for some of the majors, starting in 2011. The first chart was based on projections compiled by Bernstein analyst Tim Anderson in mid-2011. 

Below we compiled a chart of some of the leading pharmas with real revenue figures for the past four years. Numbers come from Google finance. Other than Pfizer, AZ and BMS, it’s not so horrific. Sanofi is actually slightly on the uptick in spite of the loss of Plavix, and Roche is holding its own.


In addition, if you look at stock prices over the past year, some of these companies are doing pretty well. Look at Lilly, up 39% in a year. And Pfizer, with post-Lipitor revenue dropping to the point that the company is just a notch above Novartis in sales, is up 29%.

Now, I’ve been joking lately that it’s time for the rats to take advantage of their opportunities as the Cretaceous-Paleogene extinction event in pharma occurs, but who knows, this may be just the beginning of the Jurassic.


Research Operation Costs Continue to Fall

The fall in research operations costs is astounding. If you’re not benefiting from it, you should be. Don’t be the sacrificial lamb. Efficiencies in operations enable cost reductions that should be passed on to the end consumer. Firms that are inefficient in the research market should get out of the way.

Most employers appear prepared to maintain healthcare coverage for employees

After ACA come full bloom in 2014, most employees appear prepared to maintain health insurance coverage for employees, according to a survey by published on Sunday, February 9. Thus, the rumors that employers would greedily prefer to jettison coverage, pay employees a $2000 cash lump sum and run for the hills while letting employees fend for themselves appear to be untrue, as is much of the discourse around the response to #HealthcareReform. Over 80% of survey respondents will maintain employee health plans.